TY - JOUR AU - Suci Pujiani Prahesti, AU - Itasia Dina Sulvianti, AU - Yenni Angraini, PY - 2023/01/15 Y2 - 2024/03/29 TI - Peramalan Harga Batu Bara Acuan Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average dan Fungsi Transfer JF - Xplore: Journal of Statistics JA - Xplore VL - 12 IS - 1 SE - Articles DO - 10.29244/xplore.v12i1.1100 UR - https://journal.stats.id/index.php/xplore/article/view/1100 SP - 1-11 AB - <p>Indonesia as one of the largest coal producing countries in the world has an <br>important role in coal global demand. Currently, most countries in Europe are <br>turning to coal as a source of electricity. This is due to Covid-19 pandemic and the <br>conflict between Russia and Ukraine which endangers energy sources. Therefore, <br>forecasting coal prices in the future is needed to determine the right policy in <br>dealing with the large demand for coal. Coal price fluctuation are influenced by <br>several factors such as the prices of the other commodities instance natural gas price. <br>The natural gas price factor will be modeled in coal price forecasting using the <br>transfer function method as the input series. This study compares the ARIMA and <br>Transfer Function in coal price forecasting. The results showed that MAPE values <br>of ARIMA and transfer function method are 23,14% and 17,66%. Based on MAPE <br>values that forecasting using the transfer function method has a better ability than <br>ARIMA method in forecasting coal prices.</p> ER -