@article{Suci Pujiani Prahesti_Itasia Dina Sulvianti_Yenni Angraini_2023, title={Peramalan Harga Batu Bara Acuan Menggunakan Metode Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average dan Fungsi Transfer}, volume={12}, url={https://journal.stats.id/index.php/xplore/article/view/1100}, DOI={10.29244/xplore.v12i1.1100}, abstractNote={<p>Indonesia as one of the largest coal producing countries in the world has an <br>important role in coal global demand. Currently, most countries in Europe are <br>turning to coal as a source of electricity. This is due to Covid-19 pandemic and the <br>conflict between Russia and Ukraine which endangers energy sources. Therefore, <br>forecasting coal prices in the future is needed to determine the right policy in <br>dealing with the large demand for coal. Coal price fluctuation are influenced by <br>several factors such as the prices of the other commodities instance natural gas price. <br>The natural gas price factor will be modeled in coal price forecasting using the <br>transfer function method as the input series. This study compares the ARIMA and <br>Transfer Function in coal price forecasting. The results showed that MAPE values <br>of ARIMA and transfer function method are 23,14% and 17,66%. Based on MAPE <br>values that forecasting using the transfer function method has a better ability than <br>ARIMA method in forecasting coal prices.</p>}, number={1}, journal={Xplore: Journal of Statistics}, author={Suci Pujiani Prahesti and Itasia Dina Sulvianti and Yenni Angraini}, year={2023}, month={Jan.}, pages={1–11} }