Pemodelan Pola Produktivitas Cabai Rawit di Kabupaten Magelang

Abstract

The objective of this study was to determine the best model that describe the pattern of cayenne pepper productivity in Magelang Regency. This study uses primary data which was obtained from the results of a survey of cayenne pepper production by the General Director of Horticulture on several sample plots in Magelang District, Central Java Province in 2018. The process of data analysis was divided into two parts: grouping the sample plots based on the similarity in productivity pattern and then fitting models in each group. The models used to fit data were Logistic Growth Model, Monomolecular Growth Model, Exponential Growth Model, Polynomial Model and Linear B-Spline Model. The best model was determined based on R² and MAPE. The results showed that the pattern of cayenne pepper productivity in Magelang District had eight different characteristics. Characteristics of each groups were illustrated by the similarity of their productivity pattern. The best model in each group was B-Spline Linear Model.