ANALISIS INFLASI MENGGUNAKAN DATA GOOGLE TRENDS DENGAN MODEL ARIMAX DI DKI JAKARTA

Authors

  • Newton Department of Statistics, IPB University, Indonesia
  • Anang Kurnia Department of Statistics, IPB University, Indonesia
  • I Made Sumertajaya Department of Statistics, IPB University, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29244/ijsa.v4i3.694

Keywords:

ARIMAX, forecasting, Google Trends, Inflation

Abstract

Inflation is an important economic indicator in showing the economic symptoms of a region's price level. DKI Jakarta is the capital of Indonesia chosen as the center of the economic barometer because it can provide the greatest contribution and influence on the Indonesian economy. The ARIMAX model was used for forecasting by adding independent variables in the Google trends data. Google trends data were explored based on seven expenditure groups published by IHK. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of forecast Google trends using BPS inflation data in DKI Jakarta. The result of the exploration of Google Trends data was forecasted to get the best forecast model results. The result of data analysis indicates that the forecast results approached the original BPS data with the best forecast model is ARIMAX (2.0.3) all variables X. Google Trends data can be used as forecasting but cannot be used as a reference policy decision.

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References

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Published

2020-12-20

How to Cite

Newton, N., Kurnia, A., & Sumertajaya, I. M. (2020). ANALISIS INFLASI MENGGUNAKAN DATA GOOGLE TRENDS DENGAN MODEL ARIMAX DI DKI JAKARTA. Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications, 4(3), 545–556. https://doi.org/10.29244/ijsa.v4i3.694

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