# MODELING OF THE PERCENTAGE OF AIDS SUFFERERS IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE WITH NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION APPROACH BASED ON SPLINE TRUNCATED ESTIMATOR

• Nadia Murbarani Study Program of Statistics, Department of Mathematics, Airlangga University, Indonesia
• Yolanda Swastika Study Program of Statistics, Department of Mathematics, Airlangga University, Indonesia
• Ananda Dwi Study Program of Statistics, Department of Mathematics, Airlangga University, Indonesia
• Baktiar Aris Study Program of Statistics, Department of Mathematics, Airlangga University, Indonesia
• Nur Chamidah Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Airlangga University, Indonesia
Keywords: AIDS, truncated spline estimator, multi predictor nonparametric regression, east java

### Abstract

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is a set of symptoms and infection or a syndrome that arise due to damage to the human immune system. AIDS is a health problem that often occurs in developing countries, including in Indonesia. East Java Province was ranked first in the highest number of AIDS sufferers in Indonesia ever reported from 1987-2016 as many as 16,911 people out of a total of 86,780 people. In order to overcome AIDS cases, it is necessary to know the factors that influence it. Data on the percentage of AIDS sufferers and their predictor variables have irregular data patterns or do not match in certain patterns, then the method that can solve these problems is by using the nonparametric regression based on spline truncated estimator. A spline truncated estimator is a segmented polynomial function that has better flexibility because there are knot points indicating changes in data behaviour patterns. The data that used in this study is a secondary data in 2016 obtained from the East Java Provincial Health Office. The results showed that the determination coefficient (R2) based on the best model of 93.84%. This shows that the variables of health facilities, blood donors, health workers, condom users, and residents of 25-29 years are able to explain 93.84% of the percentage of AIDS sufferers in East Java Province in 2016.

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Published
2019-06-30
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