KAJIAN MODEL PERAMALAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA DI BANDARA KUALANAMU MEDAN TANPA DAN DENGAN KOVARIAT

Authors

  • Isti Rochayati Badan Pusat Statistik, Indonesia
  • Utami Dyah Syafitri Dept. of Statistics, IPB University
  • I Made Sumertajaya Dept. of Statistics, IPB University
  • Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.171

Keywords:

sarima, sarimax, tourist, varima, varimax

Abstract

Foreign tourist arrivals could be considered as time series data. Modelling these data could make use of internal and external factors. The techniques employed here to model these time series data are SARIMA, SARIMAX, VARIMA, and VARIMAX. SARIMA is a model for seasonal data and VARIMA is a model for multivariate time series data. If some explanatory variables are incorporated and have significant influence on the response, the former two models become SARIMAX and VARIMAX respectively. Three stages of creating the model are model identification, parameter estimation, and model diagnostics. The variables used in this study were foreign tourist visits, international passenger arrivals, inflation rates, currency exchange rates, and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) over the period of 2010-2017. All four models fulfill their model assumptions and therefore could be applied. The best model of foreign tourist arrivals was VARIMA with the value of MAPE testing data = 6.123.

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Published

2019-02-28

How to Cite

Rochayati, I., Syafitri, U. D., Sumertajaya, I. M., & IJSA, I. J. of S. and I. A. (2019). KAJIAN MODEL PERAMALAN KUNJUNGAN WISATAWAN MANCANEGARA DI BANDARA KUALANAMU MEDAN TANPA DAN DENGAN KOVARIAT. Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications, 3(1), 18–32. https://doi.org/10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.171

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