Prediction of CIF Components Proportion of Indonesian Import Value Using Multivariate Fractional Logit Model

Abstract

International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) recommends to use a free on board (FOB) valuation for exports and cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) valuation for imports. CIF is a sum of FOB, freight, and insurance value of imported goods. IMTS suggests countries that record import value on CIF to have an additional method to decompose CIF into FOB, freight, and insurance value. FOB, insurance, and freight fraction follow multivariate fractional model. The model is to give prediction value of three CIF components fraction. Based on MAPE and RMSEP value, mode of transport, transit status, and group of two digit HS code are three covariates that the best precision of the predicted value.