KAJIAN EFEK SPASIAL KASUS DIFTERI DENGAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION (GWNBR)

  • Diva Arum Mustika Politeknik Statistika STIS, Indonesia
  • Rani Nooraeni Politeknik Statistika STIS
  • Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA
Keywords: diphtheria, GWNBR, negative binomial, overdispersion, spatial

Abstract

Diphtheria is an infectious disease caused by the Corynebacterium diphtheriae bacteria. Indonesia is the country with the most cases of diphtheria in Southeast Asia and ranks third in the world. In 2016, cases of diphtheria increased by 65 percent and became Extraordinary Events (KLB) in Indonesia, even though during 2013 to 2015 the number of cases of diphtheria has decreased. The province that has the highest number of diphtheria cases in Indonesia in 2016 is East Java. Diphtheria is centered and spread in certain districts / cities in East Java Province so that there are indications of spatial effects in the spread of diphtheria. Because data on the number of diphtheria cases overdispersed and indicated spatial effects in its spread, the main method used in this study was Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR). This method will be compared with other alternative methods namely Poisson regression method and Negative Binomial Regression to get the best modeling. Based on the AIC value of each model it can be concluded that the best method for modeling the number of diphtheria cases is GWNBR. The modeling results with GWNBR show that there is indeed a spatial influence on the number of diphtheria cases and risk factors in East Java Province in 2016. The percentage of DPT-HB3 / DPT-HB-Hib3 immunization coverage is not significant in all observation areas, while the percentage of drug and vaccine availability is significant at entire observation area.

References

Achmadi, U.F. (2014). Manajemen Penyakit Berbasis Wilayah Ed. Revisi. Jakatra: Rajawali Press.

Bustaman, U., Sofa, W.A., Larasati, D.N., Sari, A.K., Yuniarti, Hidayah, A., Oktaviana, S., Andriani, V.R. & Saryono. (2013). Penggunaan Metode Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) untuk Analisis Data Sosial dan Ekonomi. Jakarta: Badan Pusat Statistik.

Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jawa Timur. (2017). Provinsi Jawa Timur Dalam Angka Tahun 2017. Surabaya: Badan Pusat Statistik Provinsi Jawa Timur.

Cameron, A., & Trivedi, P. (2013). Regression Analysis of Count Data (2nd ed). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Da Silva, A.R. & Rodrigues, T.C.V. (2013). Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression-incorporating overdispersion. New York: Springer.

Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Timur. (2017). Profil Kesehatan Provinsi Jawa Timur 2016. Surabaya: Dinkes, Jatim.

Fotheringham, A.S., Brunsdon, C. & Charlton, M. (2002). Geographically Weighted Regression (The Analysis of Spatially Varying Relationships). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Hilbe, J. (2011). Negative Binomial Regression (2nd ed). New York: Cambridge University Press

Kartono, B. (2008). Lingkungan Rumah dan Kejadian Difteri di Kabupaten Tasikmalaya dan Kabupaten Garut. Jurnal Kesehatan Masyarakat Nasional, Vol. 2, No. 5.

Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. (2012). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia 2011. Jakarta: Kemenkes, RI.

Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. (2013). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia 2012. Jakarta: Kemenkes, RI.

Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. (2014). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia 2013. Jakarta: Kemenkes, RI.

Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. (2015). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia 2014. Jakarta: Kemenkes, RI.

Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. (2016). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia 2015. Jakarta: Kemenkes, RI.

Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. (2017). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia 2016. Jakarta: Kemenkes, RI.

McCullagh, P., & Nelder, J. (1989). Generalized Linear Models (2nd ed). London: Chapman and Hall.

Nandasari, B.N. & Wulandari, S.P. (2014). Pemodelan Jumlah Kejadian Luar Biasa Difteri di Jawa Timur Menggunakan Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR). Surabaya: Institut Teknologi Sepuluh November.

Noor, N.N. (2008). Epidemiologi. Jakarta: PT Rineka Cipta.

Smith, D.F. (2008). Diphtheria. In J.P. Byrne (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Pestilence, Pandemics, and Plagues (Vol. 1, pp. 158-161). Westport, CT: Greenwood Press.

World Health Organization. (2016). Increased immunization coverage addresses the equity gap in Nepal. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 2017; 95:261-269.

World Health Organization. (31 Juli 2017). Diphtheria Reported Cases. Diakses pada tanggal 18 Januari 2018 melalui http://apps.who.int/immunization_monitoring/globalsummary/timeseries/tsincidencediphtheria.html

Yosephine, P. (2017). Kebijakan Program Imunisasi Terkait Penanggulangan KLB Difteri. Jakarta: Kemenkes, RI.

Published
2019-02-28
Section
Articles